Your finish date is a probability.
Monte Carlo schedule and cost risk analysis that tells you how likely your date really is, which risks drive it, and how much time and contingency to hold. Commit to a P80, not a hope.
One date hides the odds.
Every date is a range
A CPM schedule prints one finish date. It is a single point in a spread of outcomes, and usually one of the optimistic ones.
Paths merge, odds collapse
When three near-critical paths meet at one milestone, the chance of hitting it falls sharply. A deterministic schedule cannot show it.
Contingency by round number
Without a risk model, time and money buffers end up as round figures that either run dry early or sit untouched at closeout.
How we model risk.
- 01
Repair the logic first
A risk model is only as honest as its network. We run a health check and fix open ends and hard constraints before a single iteration.
- 02
Ranges from the people who know
Short, structured interviews with the superintendents, engineers and designers who own each scope. They set the ranges, not a software default.
- 03
Risks as events, not padding
A late transformer, a failed inspection, a wet spring: each named risk is mapped to the activities it hits, with likelihood and impact.
- 04
Run thousands of futures
The model runs thousands of times to produce P50, P80 and P90 dates and costs. Finish-Date Confidence in our Controls Lab shows the idea in two minutes.
- 05
Spend mitigation where it pays
Tornado and sensitivity results rank which risks move the date most, so mitigation money goes where it buys the most days.
What you walk away with.
Scoped to your project. Native files and plain-English outputs that stay yours when we leave.
P50, P80 and P90 dates for each key milestone, with the confidence of your current target date stated in one sentence.
A cost range and recommended contingency at your chosen confidence level, tied back to named risks.
The short list of risks and activities behind most of the uncertainty, ranked by their pull on the finish.
Specific actions with owners and dates, and the before and after effect each one has on the P80 date.
The risk-loaded schedule and every input, so your team can rerun the analysis whenever the project moves.
An opening date with known odds.
A 120,000 square foot, 80-bed rehabilitation hospital delivered design-build over 30 months. Risk ranges came from the people who owned each scope, and mitigation went to the few risks that could actually move the opening. The hospital opened early enough to welcome its first patients ahead of the holidays.
- $145M
- Capital value
- 80
- Beds in 120,000 SF
- 30
- Months, design-build
Straight answers to fair questions.
What does P80 mean?
It is the date you have an 80 percent chance of meeting or beating, based on the model. Many owners and lenders commit to the P80 and manage the team to the P50.
When should we run a risk analysis?
Before you commit a date or a budget: at baseline, before a GMP, before financing and at major decision gates. Run it again after any large change.
Can you analyze cost and schedule together?
Yes. An integrated model shows how delay drives cost, which gives you a far more honest contingency than two separate studies.
Can we try this before we call?
Open Finish-Date Confidence in our Controls Lab. It runs thousands of futures of a sample schedule and shows how the P80 moves as you change the risk.
Send the schedule. See reality early.
Share the project, the latest schedule and the date you are protecting. A senior project controls lead replies within one business day.